A June 2025 reading of Iran's Hormuz threat across oil, crypto, U.S. stocks, the Fed, China's supply chains and A-shares.

Why the Swiss franc surged in 2025, what a strong currency does to Switzerland, and why I see CHF as a hedge rather than a trade.

A May 2025 analysis of Harvard's SEVP lawsuit, its constitutional arguments, and a plan to de-risk higher education beyond U.S. borders.

A blunt look at international and public education in China, the financial risks families take, and why parents matter more than the school label.

Why I started writing, what twenty years in engineering, sales and procurement taught me, and why this blog ranges across money, technology and the times.

Investing and trading use different clocks, skills and risk controls. Here is why most non-professionals need a long-term plan first.

Wealth is not the same as cash. A useful framework separates liquidity from assets, then asks whether you can earn, keep and actually use what you own.

A look at how Section 174's five-year and 15-year amortization rules changed the economics of American R&D centers in China.

Trump’s tariffs are usually read as protectionism. This essay argues that their deeper logic lies in MAGA politics, America’s debt crisis, and a possible retreat from dollar hegemony.

A mathematical thought experiment on information bottlenecks, neural networks, human cognition and the limits of using Gödel as an AI analogy.

A readable thought experiment on information loss in neural networks, what makes brains different, and where Gödel's theorem does and does not apply.

A speculative model of intelligence built around four variables: available neurons, established connections, learning rate and transmission speed.

Thinking across a time axis can sharpen judgment, but it also makes truth feel temporary and turns foresight into a source of anxiety.

A forecast of China opening further to manufacturing and exports while tightening institutional control, and why that bargain may not last.

Notes from China in July 2024: high urban living standards set against weak growth, fiscal pressure, local debt and a darker political outlook.

A February 2024 snapshot of China's stocks, debt, property and currency, followed by blunt forecasts for Europe, the United States and Japan.

A short February 2024 note arguing that China's stock rout reflected both deteriorating fundamentals and a wider restructuring of local government debt.

A sharp, affectionate review of Blossoms Shanghai, from its social-scroll plot and tangled romances to Wong Kar-wai's sound and images.

A December 2023 argument that China's economic malaise is tied to a culture of satisfaction, stability and weak appetite for abstract exploration.

A late-2023 forecast on China, Europe, the United States and Japan: stimulus, exports, infrastructure, Fed rate cuts, inflation and the auto industry.